"I mentioned in Prologue that randomness in the Black Swan domain is intractable. I will reapeat it till I get hoarse. The limit is mathematical, period, and there is no way around it on this planet. What is nonmeasurable and nonpredicatble will remain nonmeasurable and nopredictable, no matter how many PhDs with Russian and Indian names you put on the job- and no matter how much hate mail I get. There is the Black Swan zone, a limit to knowledge that can never be reached, no matter how sophisticated statistical and risk management science ever gets.
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No more Black Swans
Meanwhile, over the past few years, the world has gone the other way, upon the discovery of the Black Swan idea. Opportunists are now into predicting, predictioning, and predictionizing Black Swans with even more complicated models coming from chaos-complexity-caststrophe-fractal theory. Yet, again the answer is simple: less is more; move the discourse to (anti) fragility. "
Taleb (2012), Antifragility pp. 138-139
Note: Antifragility refers in this context to something (or a system), that becomes stronger due to shocks and benefits from randomness. The exact opposite of fragile things.
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