Lecture on (Anti)fragility by Nassim Taleb

Nassim Taleb published a lecture series on fat tails (volume 1) and (Anti)fragility (volume 2).


Here the link further articles related to the lectures will follow soon:



I believe his core message to design systems, which can deal with randomness rather than trying to predict extrem events with complex models is crucial (especially for academics and policy makers). A cool example for such systems benefiting from random contributions in a positive way could be crowd based business models.


In terms of investing its very clear design strategies, benefiting from randomness rather than trying to forecast anything. You only have to know that a lot of people think they are smart and know the future, but they will get it wrong. Simply betting on the fact that a lot of people will get it wrong with limited downside is enough to become rich over time. It requires a long term horizon and investing into uncertainty, which is against basic human psychology…If you are interested in specific strategies let me know.

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